Water AlliesTier 1
at CakeTCG PTM Online Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.6% | -5.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 6.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.9% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.4% | +3.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.8% | -2.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.8% | +2.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -1.1 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.0% | -4.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +2.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -2.1 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.4% | -5.8 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
| Fire Exia | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Genbu | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 30 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 30 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castling Boon | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tweedledee, Contrarian Poet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nico, Rapture's Embrace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frigid Bash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lily, Marine Castellan | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vigil Rempart | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Magebane Lash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Tirade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jueying, Shadowmare | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |